PHEME The Baseline Australian private market funding (venture), 2026 Q1–Q3

The signal beneath the headline

Australian private market funding (venture), year-to-date briefing

Three quarters into 2026, capital is going to fewer companies, concentrated in AI data centres, fintech and vertical enterprise software

Karen Chan and James Guo·Edited 12 October 2026·We build from public sources, and every number is traceable.

Updated 12 October 2026. The report has been updated since the 7 October version, which printed c.A$6.8bn. Firmus withdrew its ASX float on 9 October, after the period closed.

Australian startups announced c.A$6.9bn in funding for the first three quarters of 2026. Most of the funding sits in 18 rounds that each raised A$50M or more, representing 80% of total capital announced. Underneath the headline figures, rounds under A$50M together came to c.A$1.4bn across 161 rounds, versus A$1.3bn a year earlier. Funding concentrated in AI data centres and compute, which comprised c.55% of the total, all of it raised by one company, Firmus.

01The highlights

The headline strengthened. The base narrowed.

Two markets, and two speeds. AI infrastructure on one side and everything else on the other. There was more concentration and fewer rounds.

1. The headline is AI infrastructure. AI data centres and compute comprised c.55% of all capital announced, all of it raised by one company: Firmus, A$3.7bn across three rounds. The AI story is infrastructure, not the companies building on top of it.

2. Q3’26 was largely one financing. Firmus took c.80% of the quarter’s A$3.6bn. Outside Firmus, 58 rounds raised A$787M, and 48 of them were below A$20M.

3. Capital concentrated in the largest rounds. Eighteen rounds of A$50M or more took 80% of all capital announced. Below that threshold, A$1.4bn was raised across 161 rounds, against A$1.3bn across 189 rounds a year earlier (accelerator places included).

4. Vertical software is the exception to concentration. A$519M spread across 39 companies, which is depth no other major sector has. Concentration from the top deal in major sectors is as follows: Fintech is c.65% (Airwallex), cybersecurity c.75% (UpGuard) and consumer c.80% (Lyka).

5. Fewer companies raised, and the median round rose. Based on our tracking, 170 companies raised in the period, against 194 a year earlier on the same basis. Leaving out accelerator places, the median round below A$50M was A$5.2M, against A$4.5M. Most of the rise comes from fewer small rounds recorded so far, and small rounds are the least reliably reported. This measures round size; a post-money valuation is held for about one round in ten.

6. Offshore investors are in many mid-sized rounds. 26 rounds fell between A$20M and A$50M, comprising A$769M, c.10% of the capital announced. Offshore investors appear in c.50% of rounds in the band, against c.25% of those below A$5.0M, accelerator places included. There are two readings: too few companies reach this band, or too few Australian funds can write cheques that size.

7. Rounds with a government investor totalled A$903M and most of it went to the “hard tech” sectors. There were 25 such rounds, comprising c.15% of all capital announced and c.30% outside Firmus. These are total round amounts; the government’s own cheques are only part of them. Such rounds accounted for c.85% of hardware, robotics and sensors capital and c.90% of space and defence. The largest round led from Australia was Gilmour Space Technologies, co-led by the National Reconstruction Fund and Hostplus.

8. The exit and outcomes mix weakened. Sales of the company were c.50% of the 22 exits and outcomes, against c.65% of 18 in the same window of 2025, while insolvencies and wind-downs rose from c.30% to c.35%. Three floats completed: Sharon AI, Koala (mostly a sell-down by existing holders), and Monvia. Firmus was widely anticipated to IPO on the ASX in late October but has since withdrawn its IPO.

Note: Highlight 2 covers 2026 Q3 only. Every other highlight covers 2026 Q1–Q3, against the same period of 2025 where a comparison is made.

02The quarter

2026 Q3: A$3.6bn announced, with Firmus taking c.80%

Headline capital rose on the strength of a single round.

A$3.6bnannounced in total

c.90%of it in five large rounds¹

A$394Min rounds below A$50M

Note: ¹ A large round is defined as a funding round where A$50M or more is raised.

Firmus' A$2.9bn is the largest of three rounds in the quarter above A$100M, ahead of Heidi Health at A$140M, and accounted for c.80% of the capital announced. Given the sheer size, the quarter is a description of one company. The round was backed by Coatue, Nvidia, Blackstone Tactical Opportunities (and other Blackstone vehicles) and Jane Street.

Excluding Firmus, the quarter comprised 58 rounds raising A$787M. Most were small: 48 of the 58 raised under A$20M, and at least 21 were seed or pre-seed, at a median of A$3.0M. Five rounds (including Firmus) cleared A$50M.

Firmus is easy to fixate on, but three climate and energy companies placed in the quarter's ten largest raises – Amber Electric at A$79M, Gridsight at A$36M and Jet Zero Australia at A$30M – and two of the ten were horizontal business software.

#	Company	Raised	Sector	Participating investors
1	Firmus AI data centre infrastructure	A$2.9bn	AI data centres and compute	Coatue, Nvidia, Blackstone Tactical Opportunities, Jane Street
2	Heidi Health AI medical scribe that records consultations and drafts clinical notes	A$140M	Healthtech	Blackbird lead, Phoenix Court, Point72 Private Investments, Headline
3	Future Secure AI AI co-workers that run back-office work for large organisations	A$112M	Horizontal business software	Macquarie Asset Management, Khuda, Square Peg, Yarra Capital Management, Firetrail
4	Amber Electric renewable energy retailer and home battery automation platform	A$79M	Climate and energy	1GT lead, ETF Partners, Breakthrough Victoria, E.ON
5	Constantinople "bank-in-a-box" platform for financial institutions	A$63M	Fintech	Airtree lead, Square Peg lead
6	HEO Robotics satellite imaging that inspects spacecraft in orbit	A$37M	Space and defence	Beaten Zone Venture Partners lead, National Reconstruction Fund, Dcode Capital, Airtree, Salus Ventures
7	Gridsight AI capacity-management platform for electricity distribution networks	A$36M	Climate and energy	Insight Partners lead, Galvanize, Airtree, Energy Transition Ventures, Aera VC
8	Jet Zero Australia sustainable aviation fuel producer	A$30M	Climate and energy	Qantas, Airbus, POSCO International
9	Farmbot agtech remote monitoring for farms	A$22M	Vertical enterprise software	Lewis & Clark Partners lead, Fulcrum Global Capital, Builders VC, Level VC, Cultiv8 Livestock Technology Fund, Macdoch Ventures
10	Buildkite continuous integration (CI) and pipeline orchestration platform for software teams	A$21M	Horizontal business software	Not disclosed

Note: The 10 largest raises in 2026 Q3. Ranked by round, so a company that raised twice appears twice. Investors are non-exhaustive – every investor our sources name is listed, and a round may carry others no article named. Leads are listed first, and marked where the source names the lead in so many words.

Figure 1.Capital by sector in 2026 Q3, and by the companies inside it

Note: Column width is the capital and each named band is one company, so a wide column drawn as one block is a sector that is really one company. In each column, one hatched Others band at the top holds the companies beyond the seven largest, and any too small to label where a column has more than three. It opens like any other band.

Based on our tracking, the largest sector outside of AI and compute repeats the same shape of concentration: healthtech accounted for A$188M, c.25% of the remainder, and Heidi Health and Atmo Biosciences were c.80% of that.

03Year to date

80% of all capital sat in 18 rounds of A$50M or more

The funding increase barely reached the companies beneath the largest rounds.
Fewer companies raised versus the same prior corresponding period. Those that were able to successfully raise ended up raising more on average. There were 161 rounds below A$50M, accelerator places included, against 189 a year earlier, while the typical round outside the largest is larger. On our reading this describes a narrowing funnel rather than a repricing. Investors are also demonstrating selectivity and willingness to concentrate capital into fewer names.
Capital is concentrating. The market has shown it can absorb large rounds, including from companies raising a larger size round for the first time. It is also concentrating on repeat raisers, who keep returning with the capacity to stay private for longer.

A$6.9bnannounced in total

80%of it in 18 large rounds²↑ 38pp vs 2025

A$1.4bnin all other rounds

170companies raised³194 in 2025

A$5.2Mtypical round, ex-large²↑ c.15% vs 2025

² A large round is defined as a funding round where A$50M or more is raised. Movement is against 2025 Q1–Q3, measured to the same day of the year in both.
³ Each company that raised in the period is counted once, however many times it raised. A venture round is counted once its amount is reported. Accelerator places are counted in every year, because a cohort cheque is a real investment on standard terms; where the programme states its standard cheque, each place is counted at that amount. Cohorts are announced in batches, so this count moves with the accelerator calendar as well as with the market. The typical round and the quartiles leave cohort places out in every year, since their cheques are not always published.

Headline capital is set by a handful of large rounds even as the market outside of these rounds saw some growth in value year over year.

Figure 2.Announced funding by quarter, split at A$50M²A$ billion

Capital in rounds below A$50M across the first three quarters of each year: A$1.0bn in 2024, A$1.3bn in 2025, A$1.4bn in 2026. The large rounds tell a different story: their share rose from 57% to 80% over the same three periods.

Note: ² A large round is defined as a funding round where A$50M or more is raised. Year-on-year compares the same period in both years.

Figure 3.Capital and deal count have trended independently since 2025

170 companies raised, versus 194 a year earlier. The median round below A$50M was A$5.2M, versus A$4.5M. It should be noted that deal counts are a floor. Small rounds are the least reliably reported.

04Capital allocation

Significant capital is being allocated into follow-ons in portfolio ‘winners’

Counted by company, five companies account for 68% of the period. Take those five out and the remainder is still concentrated. Firmus has raised 3 times in the nine months to September at escalating valuations while signalling an ASX listing, and the April round was reported as its final private raise, yet a US$2bn round followed in August. Airwallex signalled in January 2026 that it is on the ‘private for longer’ path even as it messages that it will become ‘IPO-ready’, with no listing planned before 2028. Of course, any private company’s intended liquidity pathway is subject to change as market conditions evolve. Firmus and Airwallex, the two largest raisers, are between them A$4.1bn of the A$6.9bn announced. Firmus withdrew its ASX listing on 9 October, after the period closed, and says it will now pursue capital from the private markets, so the single largest funding event in this dataset has not yet become a liquidity event.

Figure 4.2026 Q1–Q3 capital, by the companies that raised it

The top 5 companies raised A$4.7bn, which is 68% of the total capital raised. This distribution demonstrates the total is really describing a handful of financings.

Figure 5.Outside the top five, 12 more companies raised A$50M or more

A further 12 companies raised A$50M or more in total, worth A$902M between them. They are c.15% of the period and were invisible in the bar above. Below them, 153 companies, c.90% of all companies, shared A$1.3bn: c.20% of the period.

Figure 6.2026 Q1–Q3: share of all capital held by the largest companiesCumulative, largest first, of A$6.9bn announced

Beyond the first five companies, each additional company adds little. The next fifteen companies hold the rest of the concentrated share (c.15%).

Figure 7.Share of capital held by the largest rounds⁴Same period of each year

Concentration has tightened over the last three years, measured year to date, on both the largest 5 rounds and the top 25th percentile. The largest 5 rounds went from c.30% of the period to c.65%, and the top 25th percentile from c.80% to c.90%. The top 25th percentile has always taken most of the capital, but what has changed is that most of it now sits in the top 5 rounds.

Note: ⁴ Rounds are ranked by size. The top 25th percentile is the largest 25% of rounds by count, rounded down, and the bottom 25th percentile the smallest 25%. Both hold the same number of rounds, so what changes between years is how much capital each group receives; only rounds with a disclosed amount are ranked, with accelerator places left out in every year, because a round with no amount would sit in the bottom group at zero and pull its share and average down.

Figure 8.Share of capital reaching the smallest rounds⁴Same period of each year

Rounds below the median now take c.3% of the capital, against c.5% two years ago. In dollars these rounds went from A$126M to A$223M; the share fell because everything above them grew faster.

05Sector allocation

Capital is concentrated in AI data centres and compute, fintech and vertical enterprise software

AI data centres and compute accounts for c.55% of the funding for the period. Excluding this, the remaining A$3.2bn goes to fintech at c.20%, vertical enterprise software at c.15%, hardware, robotics and sensors at c.15%, healthtech at c.10% and space and defence at c.10%.

Figure 9. Capital by sector, as reported and with the largest one and two companies removed

Excluding Firmus, fintech leads at A$689M. Excluding Airwallex as well, the largest sector is vertical enterprise software.

Outside of Airwallex (A$460M), fintech continued to see funding support across its scale-up names, including Constantinople (A$63M), Grow Inc (A$40M, before a sale to MUFG Pension & Market Services), Pay.com.au (A$40M), Superhero (A$20M) and Pearler (A$16M). Australia’s expertise in fintech has continued to manifest in funding support as companies scale.

For all the talk of a SaaS reckoning, vertical enterprise software has more depth than any other major sector – A$519M spread across 39 companies. The contrast is with sectors carried by one company or one backer: Airwallex is c.65% of fintech, Gilmour Space Technologies c.70% of space and defence, UpGuard c.75% of cybersecurity, Lyka c.80% of consumer, and Advanced Navigation plus five National Reconstruction Fund-backed rounds together c.80% of hardware, robotics and sensors.

Software is still the volume story, even in the earliest rounds. Business software accounts for 12 of the 21 Pre-seed rounds (c.55%) and 11 of the 33 Seed rounds (c.35%), with vertical enterprise software the biggest single bucket across the two stages (12 rounds). Hardware and robotics, and space and defence, weigh more in dollars than in deals at Seed: 6 rounds, c.25% of Seed capital, at an average of A$6.9M against A$5.5M for the stage, reflecting the capital those sectors need.

Note: Vertical enterprise software is software built for a single industry such as construction, legal, agriculture or logistics. Horizontal business software is software that can be used across multiple industries, such as CRM, analytics, workflow or HR. The average round is taken over rounds with a disclosed amount, accelerator places left out.

Figure 10.Capital by sector, and by the companies inside it

AI data centres and compute is the mirror image of vertical enterprise software. The former is A$3.7bn in one company while the latter is spread across many companies.

Note: Where a band is too small to carry its name, a numbered indicator sits on the column and the name and amount are given in the key beneath the chart. Sectors too small to read as a column are grouped as Other sectors and named beneath the chart. In each column, one hatched Others band at the top holds the companies beyond the seven largest, and any too small to label where a column has more than three. It opens like any other band.

Figure 11.Capital participation in AI infrastructure versus AI applicationsc.65% of the capital we can score went to a company that builds or sells AI. c.85% of it is infrastructure

Outside AI, capital concentrates in fintech at A$683M, hardware, robotics and sensors at A$375M and vertical enterprise software at A$346M.

Note: Shares are of all 179 rounds, A$6.9bn: every round carries a description and is scored.

What counts as an AI application. The company’s own description says it sells AI: 61 rounds, A$733M. A further 7 rounds, A$229M, are AI-enabled: AI appears only in a source calling an established product “AI-powered”, so they count in the wide share and not the narrow one. Both are published: c.20–25% narrow, c.30% wide.

The call that moves this most. Airwallex is tagged not AI: we tag what a company sells, and it sells fintech. Counted as an AI application the share excluding infrastructure moves from 23% to 37%.

Figure 12.What the capital not counted as AI went toA$2.5bn across 113 rounds, by sector

Fintech is the largest non-AI sector at A$683M, and c.65% of that is one company.

Note: Rounds not counted as selling AI, including the AI-enabled rounds, which the narrow AI share leaves out, by the sector each company is already filed under in this report. A sector appears here only for the part of it that is not AI, so these figures are smaller than the sector table above and do not replace it.

06Investors

Australian investors hold c.80% of seats in rounds under A$5M and c.50% in rounds above A$50M

174 Australian and 123 international investors were named across the period. Australian firms hold the majority of classified seats at every round size, and a falling majority as rounds grow.

The following applies to the three exhibits in this section. An appearance is one investor in one round. It counts the same whether the cheque was A$500k or A$200M, because the announcement record does not carry cheque sizes. These exhibits measure presence, not capital deployed and not returns. Rounds led are not shown: a lead is stated for roughly two-thirds of rounds, so ranking on leads would rank firms by how their rounds were written up.

Figure 13.All 15 investors appearing in 4 or more rounds are Australian firms

Airtree and Main Sequence appear in 12 rounds each, more than any other investor outside the accelerators. 113 of 123 international investors appear exactly once in the period.

Note: Accelerators are excluded from this ranking and shown separately below. Where the last places tie, the whole tie is left out.

Figure 14.Accelerators are the most active backers

An accelerator appears more often than any venture firm. The cohort model places many companies at a cheque size well below a typical venture round. Accordingly, we have excluded accelerators from Figure 13.

Note: Accelerators are separated because a cohort programme takes many small positions by design.

Figure 15.The larger the round, the more of its investors are offshore

The Australian share of investor seats falls from c.80% to c.50% as rounds get larger.

Note: Each share is Australian seats as a proportion of seats whose domicile we hold.

The two largest rounds with a named lead were led from offshore. Coatue led Firmus' A$725M round and Addition led Airwallex's A$460M, with Hummingbird and QED Investors among the participants; Octopus Ventures and Movac co-led AutoGrab's A$80M. The largest round with an Australian lead was Gilmour Space Technologies at A$217M, co-led by the National Reconstruction Fund and Hostplus.

07Exits and outcomes

More of the events were closures

22 exits and outcomes in 2026, against 18 in the same window of 2025.

Funding and exits describe two different cohorts. The rounds counted in this briefing were raised in 2026; our funding data, which starts in 2024, holds a raise for only 8 of the 22 companies in this ledger.

22exits and outcomes↑ c.20% vs 2025

8/22insolvencies and wind-downs↑ 10pp vs 2025

3completed floats: 2 on the ASX, 1 on Nasdaq

House of digital healthcare brands Eucalyptus produced the window’s marquee venture exit: a trade sale to NYSE-listed Hims & Hers, completed 2 June 2026. The headline is up to US$1.15bn (c.A$1.6bn); about US$240M was paid in cash at completion, with the balance deferred over 18 months and an earn-out running to early 2029. Headline and proceeds are not the same number. For local venture, it is the clearest demonstration this year of an Australian-built company becoming an attractive target for a global buyer.

Canva was the most frequent acquirer in our observed exits. Of the 22 events in the window, 11 were sales of the company; Canva bought two of them (Doohly and Ortto), and Australian buyers took 5 of the 11. This could reflect several things: buying is proving more attractive than building, and the sector is reaching the maturity where scale and balance sheet allow a dedicated corporate development strategy.

IPO activity remains limited, and what would have been one of Australia’s largest IPOs, Firmus, was withdrawn in October. Two domestic floats completed: distinctive furniture business Koala, where c.70% of the A$68.1M raised went to existing holders selling down and Monvia, a A$17.5M raise for a life-insurance software business. The same window of 2025 produced one, Tetratherix. Offshore, Australian-built neocloud Sharon AI priced a US$125M Nasdaq IPO in February 2026, reached via a December 2025 SPAC merger, an unconventional path. It came soon after a US$100M convertible note in December 2025, another example of investor interest in neoclouds. The neocloud theme was put to the test on the ASX in October, when Firmus sought a A$7bn (US$5bn) IPO raise at a targeted A$43.7bn market capitalisation. On 9 October, after the period closed, it withdrew the offer, saying that going ahead was not in the best interests of the company and its shareholders, and that it would pursue capital from the private markets. Our read before the bookbuild was that a data-centre play is about as long-duration as equity gets, priced on scarcity and a structural AI demand story where the growth assumption overrides the discount rate, and that the pressure would land on the debt side, as scrutiny of the funding plan. Underneath this is a story of execution: build on time and the halo is validated; slip, and a refinancing wall arrives. The tell that the halo was doing the work was the move from a c.A$15bn valuation in August to c.A$45bn on the IPO term sheet two months later. Despite all the focus on Firmus, a trade sale remains the base case for most Australian private company exits, with an IPO an alternative pathway.

US IPOs show a selective window, not a broad growth reset. The 2026 US IPO market is open, though not equally to every kind of growth company. The clearest pattern is in AI hardware and infrastructure, space and defence, energy, and a separate biotech cohort. Our read is that investors are more willing to fund exposure to those themes than to underwrite a broad return of venture-backed software. Even then, the US window is cautious on the debt-fuelled AI boom: Anthropic has reportedly moved its listing to November, and OpenAI’s chief executive has told staff to expect one within the next year. Volatility has concentrated in the AI trade; the VIX, the broad market's gauge, stood at 14.3 on 3 September, well below its long-run average of about 20. For Australia the sector distinction matters: Sharon AI already sits in the favoured lane, and Firmus sat closer to those themes than a generic growth company does, yet its float did not get away. A theme investors favour and an attractive investment remain different questions.

There were many unexpected outcomes for high-profile venture-backed companies. Logistics tech company Sendle, which had raised more than A$100M, was liquidated in February 2026, weeks after an abrupt closure. Regtech Grow Inc, which closed a A$66.5M Series D in 2024 and raised a further A$40M in January 2026, agreed a sale to MUFG Pension & Market Services in August 2026. Expert360, the freelance-consulting marketplace, sold to US-based Swipejobs for a reported A$16M, a deal that may be an early warning of AI’s threat to the consulting economy. The implication is that cash burners either need to keep raising or get to profitability, and an exit needs to be read against the liquidation waterfall.

Figure 16.Exits and outcomes, 2025 versus 20261 January to 30 September, both years

Two years, two different mixes. In 2025, 12 of 18 events were sales (c.65%), 1 was a float and 5 ended in insolvency or wind-down (c.30%). In 2026, 11 of 22 were sales (c.50%), 3 were floats and 8 ended in insolvency or wind-down (c.35%). The count of events is not necessarily a good guide to the health of the market, but its composition is a read-through to company execution, runway, and sentiment on which companies continue to get funded or attract buyers. It must also be read against the fact that venture is an industry of outliers, where one company can return the whole fund.

Note: An exit is an event in which the institutional investors in an Australian company that was not listed beforehand get their money out, or get a market to sell into: a sale of the whole company or a first listing on a major exchange (ASX, Nasdaq, NYSE or LSE), counted at first quotation whether or not investors sell at the float. Institutional means a venture, growth or private-equity fund, or a corporate or government investor; angels, crowdfunding or private wealth alone do not qualify. Founder-only sales, sales by a controlling private-equity owner, take-privates of listed companies and secondary sales are not exits. An outcome is a closure of such a company: an administration, liquidation or wind-down. The ledger counts both as events.

Two of the largest raisers could yet contribute to exits. Firmus withdrew its ASX float in October and is turning to private capital for now, and Airwallex, while it has no imminent plans, is a potential future candidate.

Company	Type	Counterparty	Announced	Value stated	Backers named
Clipboard School administration software	trade sale	Compass Education	27 Jan	undisclosed	Jelix Ventures, EVP
AlgoDriven Automotive data and AI	trade sale	Emergence Software	12 Feb	undisclosed	500 Global, Global Ventures, Oman Technology Fund, DTEC Ventures, Social Capital, Automotive Ventures, Oraseya Capital
Sharon AI GPU cloud and AI compute infrastructure (neocloud)	float	Nasdaq: SHAZ	18 Feb	A$685M	Regal, Ellerston Capital, Canva, Digital Alpha, Perennial, Kie Chie Wong
Eucalyptus Telehealth, behind Juniper, Pilot and Kin	trade sale	Hims & Hers Health	19 Feb	A$1.6bn	Blackbird, Airtree, W23, OneVentures, Athletic Ventures, BOND
Sendle Parcel delivery for small business	liquidation	–	26 Feb	n/a	Rampersand, Giant Leap, King River Capital, Federation Asset Management, Touch Ventures
Doohly Digital out-of-home adtech	trade sale	Canva	25 Mar	A$30M	Skalata, Archangel Ventures
Koala Mattress and furniture e-commerce	float	ASX: KOA	31 Mar	A$305M	Alium Capital, Perennial
Twine AI conversation analysis that turns sales calls into insights	trade sale	Mitti (formerly SafetyCulture)	7 Apr	undisclosed	Airtree
Ortto Customer data and marketing automation	trade sale	Canva	8 Apr	undisclosed	Blackbird, Salesforce Ventures, Rembrandt Venture Partners
The Mintable Management training platform	trade sale	Humankind	11 May	undisclosed	Blackbird
AgriWebb Livestock management and supply-chain data platform for beef producers	trade sale	URUS Group	18 May	undisclosed	Grosvenor Food & AgTech, Germin8 Ventures, Telus Ventures, Munters Group
Spoony Social app for disabled and neurodivergent users	wind-down	–	31 May	n/a	Antler
Ultra Commerce Enterprise ecommerce software platform	administration	–	2 Jun	n/a	MA Growth Ventures, Perennial, Gandel Invest, Bombora Investment Management, Alium Capital
Goterra Insect processing of food waste	administration	–	3 Jun	n/a	Grok Ventures, Rampersand, Giant Leap, CAGES Foundation, Tenacious Ventures, Investible, Main Sequence
Carbon280 Hydrogen storage technology (Hydrilyte liquid carrier)	administration	–	10 Jun	n/a	Woodside Energy, Hive Energy
Hall Brand visibility inside AI assistants	trade sale	Tracksuit	21 Jul	undisclosed	Blackbird
Monvia Life insurance policy administration software	float	ASX: MNV	24 Jul	A$104M	Tidal Opportunities, Microequities Asset Management, Ellerston Capital
Academy Xi Digital skills and career-change training	liquidation	–	28 Jul	n/a	Alium Capital, Giant Leap, Pangaea Impact Investments, Perle Ventures, Milford Asset Management
Stralis Aircraft Hydrogen-electric aircraft	wind-down	–	19 Aug	n/a	Y Combinator, Liquid 2 Ventures, Collab Capital
Grow Inc Superannuation administration technology	trade sale	MUFG Pension & Market Services	28 Aug	undisclosed	Airtree, Citi, ASX Limited, Five V Capital, Hitachi Ventures
Expert360 White-collar talent marketplace for consultants, board advisors and fractional executives	trade sale	Swipejobs	3 Sep	A$16M	Airtree, Rampersand, Hyper Capital Startups, Perennial, UniSuper, Frontier Ventures
RedEarth Energy Storage Home and business batteries	administration	–	25 Sep	n/a	Ord Minnett Private Opportunities Fund, Perennial, Thorney, Queensland Business Development Fund

Note: All 22 events, in announcement order. A value appears where a party to the deal stated one or a news report gave one, a range at its midpoint; for a float it is the valuation at listing, and a closure shows n/a. Exits and outcomes are defined in the note to the figure above.

Source: News reports; acquirer and seller announcements; PHEME analysis

Policy watch, as at 30 September 2026. The 2026–27 Budget proposed replacing the 50% capital gains tax discount with inflation indexation of the cost base and a minimum 30% tax on gains, from 1 July 2027. That measure is now law, with Royal Assent on 26 June 2026. A consultation on capital gains tax arrangements for innovative start-ups closed on 10 July, and exposure draft legislation for the resulting Innovative Business CGT Concession was released on 11 September, with consultation closing on 28 September. For this dataset the changes matter in two places: the after-tax outcome of the exits tracked here, and the incentive to fund early-stage companies. Neither is visible in the 2026 Q1–Q3 figures.

08The read

More capital does not yet point to a broader recovery.

Australian private markets have shown they can fund large rounds. They have not yet shown a broad recovery in access to capital.

In the first three quarters of 2026, 18 rounds took 80% of announced funding, while capital in rounds below A$50M was little changed at A$1.4bn across fewer rounds. Our reading is a narrower funding market, with more capital available to the companies that get through it.

What this means

For investors, the headline is a poor benchmark for the opportunity set. Sector totals need to be read alongside the companies carrying them:
- AI data centres and compute is really one company.
- Vertical enterprise software spans 39 companies.
- Offshore participation rises with round size.
For founders, a stronger headline is not evidence that the next raise will be easier, and many raises are never announced. Financing plans should be built around the investors able to fund the company’s stage and capital needs. The exit evidence also argues against treating an IPO as the default. Trade sales remain the main observed route, and the selective US listing window does not establish an equivalent opening for every Australian growth company.
For LPs and allocators, money going into companies must be kept separate from money coming back. The count of exits and outcomes says little on its own, and the mix is weaker, with more closures. The questions are liquidity, concentration and the time needed to realise investments, and fundraising volume alone does not answer them.

The question we are asking

AI is the largest theme in this period’s funding, but most of the money is building capacity. A$3.7bn went to AI infrastructure, almost all of it to one company, against A$733M across 61 rounds for companies that sell AI. That capacity is a bet on enterprise demand: agents doing work inside core business systems use far more tokens, and so far more compute, than people using a chat assistant. The question we and the wider ecosystem are asking is how far Australian businesses have gone. Are AI agents in production and built into core processes, or is adoption still at the surface?

What we will be watching

Whether funding broadens below A$50M, with more companies raising, or remains a larger total carried by a few repeat raisers.
Whether the mid-sized funding band deepens, and whether Australian investors participate more often. The current data cannot distinguish a shortage of companies reaching that band from a shortage of domestic funds able to finance them.
Whether funding translates into liquidity. Firmus, the period’s largest raiser, withdrew its ASX float in October and is turning to private capital; whether and when it lists is the test to watch. The mix of trade sales, floats and closures matters more than the event count.
How the CGT changes due from 1 July 2027, and the proposed Innovative Business CGT Concession, affect early-stage investment incentives and after-tax exit outcomes. Those effects are not visible in this period’s data.

This is a baseline of publicly announced activity. It is not a census of the market: small rounds are less reliably reported, undisclosed amounts leave dollar totals incomplete, and valuations are too sparse to establish repricing. The next test is whether access to capital and realised liquidity broaden beyond the companies driving today’s headline.

09Editors

Karen Chan

Private markets and crossover investor, adviser and board director. Previously a portfolio manager at Perennial and head of emerging companies at Investec, running venture capital and private growth investment. Earlier an M&A adviser, lawyer and investment banker at JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley. Australian Investment Council board member.

James Guo

Engineer, operator and investor across public and private markets. Previously head of strategy at eBay ANZ, leading a three-year enterprise transformation. Earlier in corporate strategy and diligence at Bain & Company, covering FMCG, financial services, technology and private equity. Founder of Megaptera Labs, an AI transformation lab.

Missing from this report? If The Baseline has missed your company's round, or has it wrong, tell us and we will correct it in the next edition. Write to us at hello@pheme.com.au.

Appendix

A1Methodology

Where the data comes from, and what it covers


1. Data source	Published news reports of funding rounds, with accelerator cohort listings and company and investor announcements.
2. What is included	Announced equity rounds into Australian companies not quoted on a public exchange, and the exits and outcomes of such companies. A company is Australian when it was founded here; a company founded overseas is not counted, even when its founders are Australian. Grants, debt and secondary sales are not counted as funding rounds. Biotechnology rounds of A$50M or more are recorded and left out of the count.
3. How the data is checked	Every round is traced to the article that reported it, and rounds of A$50M or more are checked against a second source where one is open to read, usually the company’s or an investor’s own announcement. Automated checks recompute the figures before every release.
4. Disclaimer	The Baseline is compiled from publicly available sources: media reports and company and investor announcements. Amounts raised, valuations, investors and dates are as those sources report them, and none is independently audited. Headline figures may differ from realised proceeds or outcomes, and reported information may be incomplete or later corrected by the source. This is general information only and not financial product advice. It does not take account of any reader’s objectives, financial situation or needs, and nothing in it is an offer or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is given as to its accuracy, completeness or currency and, to the maximum extent permitted by law, no liability is accepted for loss arising from reliance on it. The editors may hold interests in companies or funds named here.
5. Corrections	If you believe something here is inaccurate or incomplete, write to hello@pheme.com.au and it will be corrected in the next edition.

A2Data limitations and classifications

What the totals leave out, and how the data is sorted


1. Undisclosed amounts	A round that does not say how much it raised still counts as a round. It adds nothing to the dollar totals, so they may be lower than what was actually raised.
2. Instruments	Only new equity is counted. SAFE notes and convertible notes count as equity. Debt is left out, and so are shares sold by existing holders. Where a source does not separate new equity from debt or from shares sold by existing holders, the whole round is counted.
3. Investor domicile	A firm is Australian if it is headquartered in Australia, and offshore if it is headquartered overseas. An individual investor is placed by nationality.